2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds, Mendoza Favored

The 2026 NFL prospects have actually been able to put plenty on movie this previous college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has risen above the pack after leading Indiana to their very first Championship game.


In a surprising turn of events, predicted No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore chose to go back to Oregon for his senior year.


Moore has been buffooned to the New York Jets with the second total pick for a while now, and his statement leaves the Jets in limbo.


Here's a take a look at the chances to go No. 1 total after his announcement:


2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds


Fernando Mendoza


-20000


Arvell Reese


David Bailey


+8000


Ty Simpson


+10000


Caleb Downs


Rueben Bain Jr.


+12500


Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear preferred to be selected initially in general in the 2026 NFL Draft with about four months. Moore's statement dropped Mendoza's chances from -1000, all the method to -20000.


The Cal-transfer has team from a strong, defensive-minded unit in 2015 to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL construct, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.


He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 lawns, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten Championship, the Championship game, and the No. 1 seed entering the playoff.


After Moore's statement, Arvell Reese leapt up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and rush the QB.


He's incredibly strong, quick, and agile and was turning up all over the tape through the beginning parts of the season, but hasn't been as efficient in the back half.


Texas Tech's David Bailey's chances have actually likewise leapt after a piece de resistance at the NFL Combine.


The pass rush stands 6' 3" high, and 250 lbs. in 2025 he acquired 14.5 sacks and three required fumbles, and has actually gone beyond Rueben Bain Jr who has been docked by scouts for having shorter arms than conventional elite pass rushers.


Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the second QB on this list after carrying a Crimson Tide offense that can hardly run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing yards and 26 touchdowns while tossing 5 choices.


Simpson is smooth and accurate with a fast throwing movement that should equate well to the NFL.


Ohio State's security Caleb Downs (+12500) is a predicted top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.


Another protective gamer with +125000 chances to go top is Miami's defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 lbs and has actually recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss while forcing a fumble and getting an interception and has controlled in the playoffs.


Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on favorite to go No. 1, but after a slower year than anticipated he plans to go back to Texas for another season.


Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 National Championship Preview.