Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Preview, Odds And Picks: Betting On Brooks

The PGA Tour finishes up the Florida swing today with the Valspar Championship, as players make one last stop before shifting focus toward Texas and, ultimately, the Masters.


At Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, the field will deal with among the harder and more unique tests on the schedule.


Let's break down the chances, course setup and best bets for today's Valspar Championship.


Valspar Championship 2026 Odds


Xander Schauffele (+1100 )
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400 )
Viktor Hovland (+1800 )
Akshay Bhatia (+2200 )
Jacob Bridgeman (+2200 )
Justin Thomas (+2200 )
Brooks Koepka (+2500 )
Jordan Spieth (+2500 )
Patrick Cantlay (+2500 )
Corey Conners (+3000 )
Ryo Hisatsune (+3000 )
J.J. Spaun (+3500 )
Sahith Theegala (+3500 )
Austin Smotherman (+4000 )
Ben Griffin (+4000 )
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000 )
Nick Taylor (+5500 )
Aaron Rai (+6000 )


Copperhead Course: What to Know


Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course|Palm, Harbor, Florida
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,352
Greens: Poa Trivialis (16th smallest on Tour).
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass (fourth narrowest).
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass (4 inches).
Bunkers: 74.
Water in Play: 6


Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club has 4 courses on residential or commercial property, however Copperhead is the one that's hosted this occasion since it debuted on Tour back in 2000.


It is among the more underrated stops on the schedule and a design players tend to take pleasure in using. You're not getting your common Florida setup here either. Instead of large fairways and flat terrain, Copperhead features narrow, pine tree-lined corridors, plenty of tight doglegs and some obvious elevation modifications throughout. It resembles TPC Sawgrass where positioning matters more than just bombing it off the tee.


Because of that, gamers are to club down off the tee, which moves the advantage away from range and toward method play.


Copperhead isn't a conventional par 71 either. It includes 5 par 3s, all 195 yards or longer, and they rank as the ninth toughest set of par 3s on Tour. The four par 5s are far from simple also, grading out as the fourth toughest group in spite of being the best chances for birdies.


It's likewise really much a second-shot course. Around 53% of approach shots come from beyond 175 yards, with players hitting into little, firm greens that are difficult to hold. That's a big reason greens in policy sit around just 57%, among the most affordable marks on Tour.


You're going to have to be called in with your irons to create possibilities.


And with chauffeur utilized on hardly half of tee shots, there isn't much separation off the tee. Strokes got off the tee hasn't been a key indicator of success here, which puts a lot more pressure on approach play and the brief video game.


With greens missed out on as frequently as they are, being able to get strokes around the green becomes a big advantage when it pertains to saving par and avoiding mistakes.


Include among the hardest closing stretches on Tour with the Snake Pit, and this becomes more about restricting mistakes and playing what's thought about dull golf.


Approach play is the biggest priority this week, particularly at similar challenging scoring courses. With a lot of shots coming from 175 backyards and out into little, firm greens, I'm greatly weighting SG: APP and proximity from distance.


From there, I'm focusing on players who can manage a grind. That suggests looking at bogey avoidance, rushing and SG: ARG, along with excellent drive portion to remain in position. I'm also considering par 3 and par 5 scoring, putting divides on Poa surfaces and total performance in hard scoring conditions.


Valspar Championship Picks


Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 )


It was a rocky start to Brooks Koepka's go back to the Tour, finishing T-56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and then missing out on the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but it didn't take long for him to recover.


Koepka reacted with a T-9 at the Cognizant Classic and followed that up with a T-13 finish recently at THE PLAYERS.


This season, among this field, Koepka ranks 2nd in SG: APP. Over the past couple of years at courses with difficult scoring conditions, he's 21st in that metric, and when you combine that with strong greens in guideline numbers and his distance from 175+ yards, it's precisely what you want at a course like this.


He's also 23rd in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds, which shows that even if his irons aren't dialed, he can still offset it around the green.


This field offers an excellent opportunity for a star player to shine.


J.J. Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )


I went back and forth on whether to pull the trigger on J.J. Spaun today. It hasn't been a terrific start to the year, with his finest finish coming last week at THE PLAYERS (T-24), however he's appearing a huge method in my model, ranking fourth overall.


He's first in SG: TOT in comparable scoring conditions, 3rd in GIR% over his last 36 rounds, eighth in SG: APP, 10th in Bogey Avoidance and 15th in Good Drive Percentage with a combined club selection off the tee.


The putter has actually cooled down a bit, which is actually the main issue, however if that even comes back to average, the rest of his game is in a solid area for a course like Copperhead.


With the Masters around the corner, Spaun might use a strong proving, and this feels like one of the much better opportunities for him to put it together.


Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )


How could I not return to Corey Conners for a third straight week? The Canadian cured us well at THE PLAYERS. Not only did he hold the lead for a stretch, but he ultimately cashed us a Leading 20 (+168) ticket with a T-13 surface at TPC Sawgrass.


I had him appreciated in my model recently, and the same is occurring again for the Valspar Championship. He completed T-8 last year at this occasion and in overall has 12 rounds at Innisbrook, posting a True SG mark of +1.63.


Conners ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance at challenging scoring courses, 4th in SG: APP and sixth in Birdie or Better Percentage. He's been really accurate off the tee with a blended club choice, he's striking greens in policy at a high rate (second) and has actually done a nice job taking advantage of Par fives.


What hasn't been as strong is the putter, along with his play around the green and on harder Par 3s. Still, he had the ability to get rid of that recently. In a weaker field he could certainly do it again and in fact win this thing.


Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )


This man has actually been a popular wagering choice this season, and for good reason.


The 25-year-old hasn't finished worse than T-27, which came recently at THE PLAYERS. His finest surfaces include a T-3 at the Phoenix Open and a T-6 at the Cognizant Classic.


Hojgaard's irons have actually been called in, the putter has been solid and he ranks initially in SG: Par 3 over the past couple of seasons on average-to-difficult Par 3s.


He'll need to remain consistent off the tee and be a bit sharper around the green, but if he can do that, there's no reason he can't discover himself near the top of the leaderboard again and possibly even break through for his first PGA Tour win.


Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )


Ryo Hisatsune completed T-4 at this occasion last year, and the season prior he posted a T-33. In total, he's gotten +1.68 strokes per round at Innisbrook.


What's much more persuading is his present kind. He's missed simply one cut in 8 tournaments this season, and that was available in his first start of the year at the Sony Open.


His best outcomes include a T-2 at the Farmers, a T-8 at Pebble Beach and a T-13 surface last week at THE PLAYERS.


He ranks sixth in SG: TOT on similar tracks and is likewise 6th in GIR% over his last 36 rounds. He's also adding a 12th-place mark in Scrambling, 18th in Bogey Avoidance and 32nd in SG: PUTT on Poa Trivialis.


His iron play has taken a step forward this season and if that continues, it could carry him even further at Innisbrook this time around


Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )


It's time for our dark-horse choice of the week, which comes from 27-year-old South Carolina native Mac Meissner.


It might be crazy to back a gamer coming off back-to-back missed cuts, but with him ranking sixth total in my design today, he's tough to disregard.


Meissner ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Scrambling and seventh in SG: APP at difficult courses similar to Copperhead.


He's likewise performed well here, ending up T-26 in 2024 and T-28 in 2025, posting a Real SG mark of +1.05.


I think Meissner's got some worth this week. I'll happily lay -108 for a Leading 40, and hope we're likewise sweating a 90/1 outright ticket come Sunday.


Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 ).
Taylor Pendrith Top 30 Finish (+100 )


Something about those Canadians today, eh? My design is high on our buddies from the Great White North, and I do not wish to miss out on out on betting them to finish Top 30.


I don't think they have enough to win this competition outright, but I think they'll stay competitive for all 4 days.


Taylor hasn't missed out on a cut this season, and his play around the green can bring him through the week.


Meanwhile, Pendrith is appearing 10th in my design.


So let's include these two golf players to the card too, but just with their Top 30 wagers.


Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 ). Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )
Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )
Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )
Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )
Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 )
Taylor Pendrith Top 3o Finish (+100 )